In terms of electricity generation, the fast development of renewable energy sources is forecast to continue in the 2025-2030 timeframe. A further decrease in the costs of installing renewable energy sources and the development of electricity storage facilities will be of significant importance. Technological changes for wind farms, with favorable regulations, will translate into the repowering of installations, thus increasing the capacity and improving the efficiency of their utilization. The development of energy storage will have a positive effect on the stability of electricity supply. The EU level regulations will continue to support the development of renewable energy sources and at the same time impose the ever-higher costs and restrictions on conventional energy, making it permanently unprofitable.
It is estimated that intensive expansion of photovoltaic installations in Poland will continue further. According to the forecasts provided in the PEP 2040, an increase in capacity in PV installations up to more than 7 GW is expected in 2030. As regards the development of wind capacity until 2030, the PEP 2040 indicates an increase in offshore wind installations’ capacity to approx. 3.8 GW, and in onshore wind installations’ capacity – approx. 9.6 GW.
By 2030, further shutdowns of unprofitable coal-fired units will take place. However, there is a chance for large, modern conventional power generating units, the main role of which will be to stabilize the national power system. However, it is assumed that their functioning will be directly dependent on the condition of climate and environment at the end of the third decade of the century. The expansion of flexible gas -fired units is also considered. It is estimated in the PEP that approx. 4 GW of generation capacity will be retired in the 2026-2030 timeframe. As a consequence, it is forecast that the share of coal in the national energy mix will decrease significantly.
The most important factors affecting the level of electricity demand include a further improvement of energy efficiency and, at the same time, still large potential for electricity consumption growth. Consumer awareness will be increasing further in connection with the digitization processes, access to the prosumer installations and smart grid solutions. An ever-broader range of services based on the smart grid infrastructure, in particular smart meters, is assumed. The role of the demand side management services (DSR/DSM) will also increase, which will largely result from the development of smart technologies and market mechanisms.
Due to the avalanche growth of prosumer installations, there will be a need to further develop transmission systems and distribution grids in order to adapt them to greater load variability, as well as to support bi-directional flows.
A great opportunity is the growing awareness of threats to air quality resulting from low emissions and transportation. The generation sector, with the introduction of appropriate regulations, may become the greatest beneficiary of changes in the way energy is used for heating and transportation. At the same time, it will be a challenge for distribution grids and district heating networks, which will have to take into account an increase in loads. Growing energy awareness in combination with increasing energy costs will cause more and more interest in energy efficiency, energy saving and in-house production of energy from RES. Economic incentives and better technologies will result in the intensification of thermo-modernization activities and increased purchases of less and less energy-consuming devices (including in households). Additionally, the popularity of pro-ecological behavior will grow. More and more customers will accept the higher cost of electricity, provided it comes from ecological generation sources.